The 2024 election is three weeks away, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. From the presidential election to control of the House and Senate to local races like the surprisingly competitive Maryland Senate race, a lot will be decided on Nov. 5. The Black & White’s weekly politics review will be posted every Tuesday, up to and including Election Day. The column will include a recap of the past week’s political events, an explanation of the most recent polls and a preview for the next week.
Last week’s recap
Following the destruction caused by Hurricane Helene, Hurricane Milton made landfall Wednesday, causing mass flooding and damage in Florida as well as widespread political misinformation. Former President Donald Trump falsely suggested that the federal government hijacked the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s response to the hurricanes for partisan purposes. Trump, without evidence, said that the federal government was intentionally redirecting money from areas in need with a high Republican demographic to house undocumented immigrants. Vice President Kamala Harris slammed Trump’s words as “the height of irresponsibility” and said it was “unconscionable” that the former president would “mislead desperate people to the point that those desperate people would not receive the aid to which they are entitled.”
This week, Harris embarked on a media blitz, appearing on The View, the popular podcast Call Her Daddy and The Howard Stern Show, also revealing she owns a Glock on 60 Minutes and drinking a beer on The Late Show With Stephen Colbert. The media barrage follows a surge in criticism from both Republicans and Democratic strategists who say that the Harris campaign has been too secluded from the public, keeping undecided voters in the dark about Harris’ policies and values.
In a rally in North Carolina, Harris called Trump “weak and unstable” for refusing to do a 60 Minutes interview, release a health report and commit to a second presidential debate, all things she has done in recent weeks. Trump had previously criticized CBS for its handling of the interview and suggested it was biased toward Harris by editing her responses.
Former President Barack Obama campaigned on Thursday in Pennsylvania, a critical swing state. Being one of the most popular public figures among voters, the Harris campaign hopes his association with the campaign will increase voter turnout and momentum in populated areas of Pennsylvania.
Prince George’s County Exec. Angela Alsobrooks and former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan met for their first and only debate for Maryland’s open Senate seat on Thursday night. Topics covered included abortion rights, Senate control, foreign policy, the future of the filibuster and more. The candidates were generally respectful but the debate included accusations from both candidates that the other cares more about their party than the needs of the country and Maryland.
What recent polling says
All polling is from reputable aggregator 538 unless otherwise specified.
Polling for the general election has stayed relatively stagnant for the past month, with Harris leading by about two and a half percentage points. Although the result of the popular vote is irrelevant in determining the election’s winner, it’s still a valuable benchmark to measure election trends.
Polling of the seven swing states (PA, MI, WI, NV, AZ, GA and NC) shows no clear leader and a race within two points for every swing state. Harris leads in PA, MI, WI and NV by very slim margins, while Trump leads in AZ, GA and NC by roughly one point. If every state voted exactly how the polls show today, which is unlikely, Harris would win the election with 276 electoral votes. 538 currently gives Harris a 54-in-100 chance to win the election.
Republicans look poised to flip the Senate, due to their all-but-guaranteed pickup in West Virginia after the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin (I) and the likely loss of incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) in Montana. Democrats have to defend a Democrat-held seat in six of the seven competitive Senate races this year, making their path to controlling the legislature incredibly difficult. However, unexpectedly competitive Senate races in red states like Florida, Texas and Nebraska could lead to surprise upsets on Election Night.
The race for the House is much closer than the Senate, with both parties having roughly equal chances to win. As of Tuesday, 538 gives the House a 53-in-100 chance of flipping to Republicans. Maryland has no competitive House races.
Locally, Alsobrooks leads Hogan by 8.6% in Maryland’s Senate race. While this may look like a commanding lead, it’s unexpectedly competitive for a deep blue state that hasn’t elected a Republican senator since 1980. The Democratic nominee was widely expected to run away with the race until Hogan, who enjoyed a high approval rating while in office, decided to run for the Republican nomination.
A look ahead
Harris and her running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz will campaign across the “Blue Wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin throughout the week. These states are crucial to Harris’ campaign as she has very few paths to victory if Trump manages to breach these key areas.
After turning down an invitation by Fox News for another debate, Trump agreed to appear at an event focused on “issues impacting women ahead of the election” on Tuesday night after polling showed that women overwhelmingly favor Harris over Trump on abortion access, birth control, IVF and more. Trump, who took credit for overturning Roe v. Wade, said that his administration “will be great for women and their reproductive rights.”
Harris will sit for her first interview with conservative-leaning Fox News on Wednesday, a change for the vice president, who has previously only done interviews with liberal or nonpartisan outlets during the election cycle.
