College acceptance rates, which had been declining since 2002, are now rising. New research released in September by the conservative think tank American Enterprise Institute (AEI) reveals that colleges are admitting more applicants than they did 20 years ago.
The research finds that average admission rates at bachelor’s degree-granting colleges and universities now exceed levels from 20 years ago. Between 2002 and 2012, median admission rates dropped by six percentage points before remaining steady. However, these rates surged in 2020, primarily due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and have since created an overall increase of 1.4 percentage points since 2002.
Chemistry teacher Rob Shaver believes the rise in acceptance rates is beneficial, as getting into college has become more difficult over time.
“Students that want to go to college should be given that opportunity,” Shaver said. “Now I think it seems more complicated and pricier, and you have to jump through more hoops to get into college when it was a much more simplified process back in the day.”
One reason for rising acceptance rates is the decreasing demand for higher education. College enrollment soared in the 2000s but dropped by over 10% from 2012 to 2022. With a smaller pool of potential students, applicants now have a higher chance of being accepted.
However, the increasing competitiveness of top-ranked universities has heightened fears of rejection in recent years. Since 2002, Ivy League universities have gradually lowered their acceptance rates, and in 2022, they accepted just over five percent of applicants.
Acceptance rates can be misleading, though. The growth of Common App has made applying to many colleges easier, resulting in a greater number of applications. This increase in applications can contribute to lower acceptance rates. AEI senior research fellow Preston Cooper said colleges benefit from the perceived competitiveness.
“Colleges do want to cultivate this idea that they’re prestigious and selective, and you should want to pay a lot of money for them,” Cooper said. “They like the idea of being a sought-after good.”
Younger Americans are likely to believe that college admission is more difficult today than it was in the past. According to the Pew Research Center, 45% of 18 to 29-year-olds think it’s harder for young adults today to get into college than their parents’ generation, while only 27% of people aged 50 and over share that view.
Most colleges admit a majority of students who apply. In 2022, 87% of nonprofit four-year colleges — excluding for-profit schools since most are open enrollment — accepted more than half of their applicants.
Although declining enrollment may result in higher acceptance rates, which seem beneficial to students, it will also pose significant challenges for higher education. Research predicts what is known as the “demographic cliff” — where the number of college-age students will begin a steady decline in 2025 due to falling birth rates and an aging U.S. population. This decline will result in approximately 13% fewer high school graduates by 2041. To counter the projected loss of applicants, colleges will likely need to intensify recruitment efforts, offer more financial incentives or adopt retention strategies. Another study predicts that declining enrollment will lead to more college closures.
Some colleges increasingly admit early-decision applicants — those who apply early to a university and must attend if accepted — to secure a portion of their incoming class. The use of early decision has sparked controversy, with critics arguing that it disadvantages low-income students, who often need to compare multiple financial aid offers before making a decision.
Four-year degrees aren’t required for many jobs in fields like trade, public safety and technology, and Shaver said a student’s decision to attend college should depend on their career goals.
“There are so many great careers that would not benefit from college, but they would benefit from an apprenticeship or an internship where you don’t really need the college degree to have a fulfilling career,” Shaver said.
More Americans than ever are asking themselves whether college is truly worth it. Still, college can provide valuable life skills, improve students’ subsequent earnings and enhance their well-being, including increasing healthy behaviors and happiness.
Students choosing to attend college may find it easier to gain acceptance overall, but highly selective universities are becoming increasingly competitive.
