The 2024 election is two weeks away and the stakes couldn’t be higher. From the presidential election to control of the House and Senate to local races like the surprisingly competitive Maryland Senate race, a lot will be decided on Nov. 5. The Black & White’s weekly politics review is posted every Tuesday, including Election Day. This column will include a recap of the past week’s political events, an explanation of the most recent polls and a preview for the next week.
Last week’s recap
Early voting began in the crucial Southern swing states of Georgia and North Carolina. Both states reported record turnout on the first day of voting, despite concerns over roadblocks caused by Hurricane Helene. Georgian voters cast 328,000 ballots in just the first day, a notable 123% increase from 2020. By Friday, voters had cast 1.16 million ballots, almost a quarter of the total votes in 2020.
Vice President Kamala Harris appeared Wednesday in a combative interview on Fox News in an attempt to reach out to conservative-leaning undecided voters. Fox anchor Bret Baier repeatedly tried to cut off Harris, first interrupting just 20 seconds into the interview. Harris defended her positions on immigration and border security, and expressed that her presidency would “not be a continuation of Joe Biden’s presidency.”
Former President Donald Trump continued to revise what happened on Jan. 6, 2021, saying that it was a “day of love” and compared the treatment of the rioters to Japanese internment camps during World War II.
Harris turned 60 on Sunday, making her the youngest presidential candidate in 12 years. Trump wished her a happy birthday while working at a McDonald’s after denying Harris’ claims that she had worked there in college.
Continuing her press tour, Harris appeared on MSNBC to criticize Trump’s vulgar remarks at a rally on Saturday, where he called her a “shit vice president.” Harris said these statements demean the presidency and that “the American people deserve so much better.”
On Thursday night, Harris skipped the Al Smith Dinner, a Catholic charity event traditionally known as the last time candidates meet before the election. It is the first time a candidate hasn’t attended the event since 2004, and Harris sent in a video to the dinner while campaigning in Wisconsin. Trump attended the event, urging Catholics to vote for him and criticizing Harris as someone who can “barely put together two coherent sentences” and “seems to have the mental faculties of a child.”
Trump canceled multiple events this week with NBC, CNBC and The Shade Room. A Trump advisor said the former president was “exhausted and refusing interviews,” a report the Trump team denied as “unequivocally false.” Harris attacked Trump as becoming “increasingly unstable and unhinged” after the former president cut short a Q&A town hall to sway onstage to his campaign playlist for half an hour.
What recent polling says
All polling is from reputable aggregator 538 unless otherwise specified.
Polling for the general election has tightened slightly, with Harris now leading by a slimmer margin of 1.7 points compared to 2.5 points last week. This is the first time Harris’ lead has dipped below two points since Aug. 7. 538 predicts that, because of Republican’s advantage in the Electoral College, Harris would need to win the popular vote by at least two points to be favored to win the election.
Polling of the seven swing states (PA, MI, WI, NV, AZ, GA and NC) has also gotten much closer in the past week. The race is within one percentage point in five of the seven crucial states (PA, MI, WI, NV and NC), meaning that even the slightest polling error could allow either candidate to win easily. Trump now leads in AZ and GA by 1.9 and 1.6 points respectively, a slight increase in both states from last week. This was a good week for Trump in swing state polling, as he gained in all seven, most notably erasing Harris’ lead in the Rust Belt (PA, MI and WI) and increasing his own lead in the Sun Belt (GA and AZ). 538 currently gives Trump a 51% chance to win the election, the first time he’s led since Aug. 7.
Republicans remain positioned to flip the Senate due to likely pickups in WV and MT. Races in red states, namely NE and TX, have gotten much closer though, with Republican incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer and Independent candidate Dan Osborn being effectively tied in Nebraska.
Something noteworthy is the divergence in the presidential and down-ballot races. States essentially tied in the presidential election like MI, WI, PA, AZ and NV all have Democratic Senate candidates with comfortable leads, suggesting that many voters prefer Trump over Harris but support incumbent Democrats for the Senate.
The race for the House remains much closer than the Senate, with both parties having similar odds of victory. As of Tuesday, 538 gives Republicans a 51% chance of maintaining control of the House. Other prediction models like The Economist, have a rosier outlook for Democrats, giving them a 60% chance to flip the House. Maryland has no competitive House races.
Locally, Prince George’s County Exec. Angela Alsobrooks has expanded her lead over former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan to 9.4% in Maryland’s Senate race. Internal polling from Senate Republicans found that Maryland, a deep blue state, is slipping further and further from being a potential pickup for the GOP.
A look ahead
Harris will campaign with both former President Barack Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama in Georgia and Michigan next week. The Obamas are two of the most popular public figures in the nation, especially among groups the Harris campaign is looking to gain, like suburban and Black Americans.
Just nine days before the election, Trump will hold a rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday, in the heart of a Democratic stronghold.
CNN will host a town hall with Harris on Wednesday, a part of Harris’ continued media blitz. CNN also offered Trump a town hall, but he declined.
