The 2024 election is one week away and the stakes couldn’t be higher. From the presidential election to control of the House and Senate to local races like the surprisingly competitive Maryland Senate race, a lot will be decided on Nov. 5. The Black & White’s weekly politics review is posted every Tuesday, including Election Day. This column includes a recap of the past week’s political events, an explanation of the most recent polls and a preview for the next week.
Last week’s recap
Former President Donald Trump’s former Chief of Staff and former Marine General John Kelly said the former president “certainly falls into the general definition of fascist” and that Trump would govern like a dictator. Kelly also said Trump told him that “Hitler did some good things,” saying he needed “the kind of generals that Hitler had.” Vice President Kamala Harris said the comments are “deeply troubling” and are “a window into who Donald Trump really is.”
Harris held a rally in Houston, Texas, on Friday night focusing mainly on abortion rights. Houston-born superstar Beyoncé spoke at the event, saying “I’m not here as a celebrity, I’m not here as a politician. I’m here as a mother.” Harris is campaigning in Texas, a state with one of the strictest abortion bans in the U.S., using the state as an example of what she says the country would look like under a second Trump presidency.
On Sunday, Trump held a rally at Madison Square Garden filled with vulgar language and racist insults from speakers throughout the night. The opening speaker, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe, described Puerto Rico as a “floating island of garbage,” drawing condemnation from Republican members of Congress. The Trump campaign said in a statement, “This joke does not reflect the views of President Trump or the campaign.” Other speakers made sexist and racist comments about Harris and derogatory remarks about Latinos, African Americans, Palestinians and Jewish people.
Both of the politically popular Obamas took to the campaign trail this week. Former President Barack Obama rallied for the first time with Harris in Georgia and former First Lady Michelle Obama appeared for the first time this election season with Harris in Michigan, in an effort to win over moderate Republicans. The former first lady made an appeal to men at the Michigan rally, using graphic descriptions of the world she believes Trump would create for women, saying “If we don’t get this election right, your wife, your daughter, your mother, we as women, will become collateral damage to your rage.”
Harris held a town hall with CNN on Thursday night, during which she called Trump a fascist for the first time and discussed issues like immigration, abortion access and her policy reversals. She also faced criticism from both Republicans and Democrats for giving evasive responses and not directly answering questions. CNN offered Trump a similar town hall, but he declined the invitation.
Trump appeared as a guest on an episode of “The Joe Rogan Experience,” a podcast with a predominantly young male audience. Topics covered included election fraud, eliminating the federal income tax and the July assassination attempt on Trump. Rogan’s podcast is the most listened to in America and has 17.5 million subscribers on YouTube, giving Trump an opportunity for increased outreach in the campaign’s final days.
What recent polling says
All polling is from reputable aggregator 538 unless otherwise specified.
Polling for the general election continues to slide slightly towards a net tie, with Harris now leading by 1.4 points compared to 1.7 points last week. Multiple reputable outlets found the race tied, with the New York Times finding both candidates at 48% and CNN finding them at 47% each. 538 currently gives Trump a 53% chance to win the election.
The race is still close in the seven swing states (PA, MI, WI, NV, AZ, GA and NC). Neither candidate has a lead greater than 0.5 points in PA, MI, WI and NV. Trump leads by roughly 1.3 points in the southern battlegrounds of GA, NC and AZ. The average polling error in swing states since 1972 is 3.4%, meaning that, assuming normal polling error, either candidate could be headed for a win with >300 electoral votes, far more than the amount needed to win the election.
The Senate still looks likely to flip to Republican control, with the main question being the strength of their majority. To keep the Senate, Democrats must either retain their seat in Montana or flip a seat in Nebraska, Texas or Florida while winning multiple other competitive races. 538 currently gives Republicans an 89% chance of winning control of the Senate.
The race for the House is much closer than the Senate, with each party having roughly equal chances to win the lower chamber. Barring a major polling error, the winning party will likely have a very slim majority. Maryland has no competitive House races. 538 currently gives Republicans a 52% chance of keeping the house.
If Republicans flip the Senate and Democrats flip the House, a likely scenario in this election, it would mark the first time in U.S. history that both chambers of Congress flipped control to opposite parties.
Locally, Prince George’s County Exec. Angela Alsobrooks has expanded her lead over former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan to 10.4% in Maryland’s Senate race, the first time her lead has risen past 10 points this election. 538 gives Alsobrooks a >99% chance to win the seat.
A look ahead
Harris will hold a closing rally Tuesday, one week from the election, at The Ellipse in Washington D.C. — a noteworthy location given it’s where Trump encouraged his supporters to riot at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
Trump will host a rally every day next week in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and Virginia. The former president will be looking to offset any damage from Sunday’s controversial rally and gain momentum in the final days of the election.
