In 1948, American psychologist Bertram Forer administered a personality test to his students, offering each of them a tailored analysis based on their responses. Forer then had his students rate the accuracy of their analyses on a scale of 0 to 5, with 5 being the most accurate. On average, his students gave their analyses an accuracy score of 4.26. Unbeknownst to the students, however, their “personally” crafted analyses were entirely identical.
Forer’s experiment would go on to provide the basis for the psychological phenomenon known today as the “Barnum effect,” a cognitive bias that occurs when someone identifies strongly with generic descriptions.
In his analyses, Forer used vague phrases such as “you have a tendency to be critical towards yourself” or “you have found it unwise to reveal yourself to others,” to describe the students’ personalities. The students believed the results to be very accurate because they all saw parts of themselves in such basic and general phrases.
The use of the Barnum effect has since expanded to a much larger scope. Many industries heavily rely on it, and modern innovations in mass communication make it easier than ever to exploit people’s perceptions of their personalities to win them over. Now more than ever, education on the Barnum effect’s rampant use as a manipulative psychological tool is crucial. Schools should educate students on the phenomenon and how to navigate it so teens can learn to make better-informed decisions.
The psychic services industry lives and breathes off the Barnum effect. In 2023, the industry was worth over $2.3 billion and is steadily increasing in value. A 2022 study found that more than one-fourth of Americans — more than 110 million people — believe in astrology. Pseudosciences like astrology typically assign people the same sort of generic analyses that Forer gave his students; in fact, Forer found the analysis he used straight from the astrology section of a local newspaper.
While Forer’s experiment was for scientific purposes, psychics in the current industry slap price tags on their deceptive readings and predictions, often garnering copious amounts of money. Famous late psychic Sylvia Browne would charge upwards of $750 for one 30-minute telephone reading, which had a waiting list of four years in 2007. Psychics today have become even more proficient at monetizing their supposed sixth sense through advertising. Self-proclaimed top psychic Matt Fraser, for example, charges $50 for seats at his live shows and upwards of $90 for a spot at one of his online reading sessions or access to one of his courses on unlocking the “secrets of the spirit realm.”
The University of Virginia conducted a study on the success of psychic mediums in finding information on the deceased relatives of customers. Unsurprisingly, their research determined that the Barnum effect was essential to the mediums’ methodology, attributing much of the success of the psychic readings in the study to the vagueness of the statements given. In other words, customers perceived the mediums using very general assertions as more accurate than mediums who tried to get into the specifics.
Political candidates also used the effect to their advantage. When Kamala Harris promises to chart a “New Way Forward,” or Donald Trump reinforces his belief to “Make America Great Again,” people project their desires and beliefs onto a candidate, creating a sense of personal alignment without thinking critically about a candidate’s policy.
In a world where TikTok is worth around $84 billion and where most social media platforms have added an avenue for short-form content in the last five years, a catchy slogan from a politician is far more likely to go viral than an in-depth analysis of a piece of policy, giving people the opportunity to fill in the blanks based on vague political statements without truly realizing that they’re forming opinions without substantial evidence. In 2024, the average TikTok video duration ranged from 35-55 seconds. Compared to the 90-minute length of the Sept. presidential debate, there is much less room for explanation of real policy in short-form time constraints. Additionally, roughly one-third of social media users indicate that they engage in political activity online to some degree, indicating plenty of opportunities for users to post and share unsubstantive clips.
The frequent use of the Barnum effect to manipulate audiences into feeling understood casts a curtain on scientifically accurate personality assessments. Those aware of the Barnum effect’s rampant use lose trust in scientific computer-based personality assessments, such as MMPI or the Big 5. When handled by professional psychologists, these tests can provide accurate information to counsel patients and enlighten users on aspects of their personality.
In a world overflowing with content, the Barnum effect’s subtle manipulation is more dangerous than ever. An individual’s ability to break free from the psychological trap ultimately lies in their ability to think critically, and education on the issue will play a key role in fostering this.
