Today marks a lot of important events: St. Patrick’s Day, the release of some schools’ college decisions and the publication of the Black & White’s annual March Madness predictions. A panel consisting of opinion writer William Arnesen, sports editor Sam Berson, sports writer Caleb Friedman, print managing editor Tyler Jacobson, news writer Trevor Lystad and online managing editor Scott Singer have joined together to look into this March’s crystal ball.
Player of the Tournament
Arnesen: Jahlil Okafor, Duke. Despite being only a freshman, this 6’11 Whitney Young graduate has more than enough talent to make up for his youth. Posting nearly 18 points a game (with only one game under 10) and shooting 67 percent from the field, this center is possibly the most talented in the game. If Duke wants to make a deep run into the tournament, they’ll need Okafor to buttress their offense enough to overcome a middling defense.
Berson: Georges Niang, Iowa State. Niang is a versatile 6’8” forward that is the heart and sole of the Cyclones. Niang can play almost any position on the court and his passing skills make him a dangerous threat wherever he plays. He also leads the balanced ISU offense with 15.4 points per game, while also adding 5.4 rebounds. The Cyclones may surprise some people in the tournament and if they are going to make a run it will be on Niang’s back who is chomping at the bit to get another shot in Mar. after breaking his foot in the teams opening game last season.
Friedman: Stanley Johnson, Arizona. Johnson, the ‘Cats ultra-athletic wing, needs to be big time for Arizona if they want to make a run. The 6’ 7’’Johnson is a legit NBA prospect, and creates matchup nightmares for his opponents. If you put a big on him, he’ll drive, and he’s one of the best slashing guards in the nation. If you put a guard on him, he’ll pull up, or back his man down. If Arizona gets to the Final Four, which I think they will, look for Johnson to lead charge.
Jacobson: Jerian Grant, Notre Dame. This kid can flat out ball. After leading Notre Dame to the ACC tournament championship last week, this guard is on a hot streak. In the title game against North Carolina, Grant scored 24 points and added 10 assists, while making it to the line a staggering 18 times. He also has a chip on his shoulder after he missed the second half of last season with academic issues. Look for this kid to will the Fighting Irish to the Elite Eight and give Kentucky a run for their money.
Lystad: Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky. The top team’s top dog, Towns has been limited to about 20 minutes a game all season thanks to Kentucky’s absurdly deep rotation. In the tournament, however, coach John Calipari isn’t going to take chances: I would expect to see Towns out there much longer, especially as the Cats get deeper in the Big Dance. Don’t be fooled by his seemingly low point (9.7) and rebound (6.7) per game averages: when let loose, this guy can play.
Singer: Tyus Jones, Duke. I had the pleasure of watching this kid warm up from a distance while visiting Jones’ high school in Apple Valley, MN. Jones serves as the ideal complement to big man Jahlil Okafor. Okafor will consistently draw double teams, and I expect Jones to capitalize on blown man-to-man defensive sets. This duo, along with the veteran leadership of coach Mike Krzyzewski, has perhaps higher potential than the Kentucky team that is expected to easily claim the crown. Though Duke lacks consistency, these freshmen could pose the greatest threat the road to a Wildcat championship if they heat up at the right time.
Biggest Sleeper
Arnesen: 5-seed Utah, South Region. This year, the South division is the most up in the air, lacking any sort of super-dominant team to make it clear who will advance. Indeed, none of the top 5 teams according to college basketball stats wizard Ken Pomeroy are in this division. This power vacuum leaves the severely under-ranked Utes opening for a potential push into the Elite Eight, even the Final Four. What makes Utah so magical is their strong defensive efficiency, the stat most strongly correlated with NCAA success. While Duke and Gonzaga are compelling teams, Utah’s underappreciated team could certainly wreck many a bracket.
Berson: 11-seed BYU, West Region. While the Cougars have to beat Ole Miss just to get into the field of 64, BYU is a force to be reckoned with. Averaging over 80 points per game, BYU loves to drive to the hoop, play an up-tempo style of basketball and draw lots of fouls, making the Cougars tough to prepare for. While they may wish they had Jimmer Fredette back, guard Tyler Haws has done an excellent job on offense, averaging over 20 PPG. Guard Kyle Collinsworth locks down the paint and has the ability to take over games.
Friedman: 13-seed Eastern Washington, South Region. You’ve probably never heard of the Eagles, but they have the firepower to make a run. The Big Sky champions have shot 39.6 percent from three-point range this season, ranking 14th in the country. 6’4’’ combo guard Tyler Harvey is star, coming in as the nation’s leading scorer with 22.9 points per game. The Eagles have a favorable first-round matchup, as they’ll take on the methodical and over-seeded Georgetown Hoyas, who often have trouble scoring. If Harvey and co. get hot, look out.
Jacobson: 10-seed Davidson, South Region. Remember that guard from Davidson a couple years back who absolutely tore up the NCAA tournament? What was his name again? Oh yeah–Stephen Curry. This year, Davidson might just have three Steph Currys on their roster. Guard Tyler Kalinoski averaged 17 points a game while shooting 43 percent from three-point land. Another guard Jack Gibbs put up 16 a game on 44 percent shooting from three and finally guard Jordan Barham averaged 12 points a game shooting an incredible 47 percent from the three-point line. They put up 108 a couple weeks back. They were 20-36 from the three-point line! Gonzaga you better watch out.
Lystad: 6-seed SMU Mustangs, South Region. More than anything else, I think the Mustangs were put in a quadrant built for upsets, and I foresee them making it to the Elite Eight. They’ll presumably play Iowa State in the Round of 32, who is known for crazy comeback wins. Despite their strong resume, teams known for comebacks are not to be trusted come March. After that, they’ll likely face off against 2-seed Gonzaga in the Sweet 16. The Mustangs will be out for revenge after a 16-point defeat early in the season, and ever since 2013, when 1-seed Gonzaga ruined my bracket by losing in the second round, I just can’t trust the Zags.
Singer: 12-seed Stephen F. Austin, South Region. Stephen F. Austin not only began early colonization efforts in Texas during the 19th century, he also lends his name to a team that has the making of a traditional so-called giant killer. SFA controls the pace of the game, forces lots of turnovers, and is strong on the offensive boards. Look for the Lumberjacks to capitalize on their extra possessions against Utah and (in all likelihood) Georgetown in the early rounds.
Most Likely to Choke
Arnesen: 3-seed Baylor, West Region. Baylor certainly isn’t bad, but they aren’t a true three-seed. With two losses to unseeded Oklahoma State and a loss to unseeded Illinois, this 22-9 team just doesn’t have the consistency to make it far in the tournament. Especially not in a particularly dense Western division, with UNC, Arizona and Wisconsin to boot (the latter two are the second and third best teams according to Pomeroy). While an easy first two rounds might get them into the Sweet Sixteen, they aren’t going any farther than that.
Berson: 3-seed Baylor, West Region. In this case, I think my sleeper will actually beat my choker with BYU upsetting the Bears in the second round. While an excellent rebounding team, Baylor doesn’t have many big stars or shooters that will be able to help them down the stretch in a close game. The Bears are also an abysmal 189th in FG percentage, shooting just 43 percent from the field, something that can really come back to bite them in the tournament. Coming up against a high-powered offense like BYU could spell trouble for Baylor, especially if they start to lose out under the basket.
Friedman: 1-seed Kentucky, Midwest Region. If the Wildcats don’t win it all that’s choking right? But if I had to choose another team to lose early, I’d pick Kansas in the midwest. Whether they face Wichita State or Indiana, I think the Jayhawks will fall. They almost lost to lowly TCU in the Big 12 tournament, and they’ll be missing highly-touted freshmen Cliff Alexander amidst recent NCAA allegations of Alexander receiving impermissible benefits. Kansas has made a living off of losing early in the tournament, and although this year might be head coach Bill Self’s best coaching job, I don’t see them getting out of the opening weekend.
Jacobson: 5-seed Utah, South Region. Ah the sweet, sweet 5-12 matchup. It’s the classic upset game and this year I think a number of five seeds go down. The one I’m most confident about is Stephen F. Austin taking out Utah. Utah just hasn’t looked good recently. Heading into the tournament they’ve lost four out of their last seven. In a fairly weak Pac-12 conference, that is just not very good. In the last game of the regular season, Utah lost by nine to the University of Washington. That was one of five conference wins for Washington all season. Look for Utah to lose in the first round.
Lystad: 4-seed Georgetown, South Region. Let’s look at the Hoyas’ last four tournament appearances. 2013: 2-seed Georgetown falls to 15-seed FGCU in the Round of 64. 2012: 3-seed Georgetown upset by 11-seed NC State in the Round of 32. 2011: 6-seed Georgetown crushed by 11-seed VCU in the Round of 64. 2010: 3-seed Georgetown fittingly loses by 14 to 14-seed Ohio in the Round of 64. You get the idea. 13-seed Eastern Washington advances.
Singer: 2-seed Kansas, Midwest Region. As someone who lives for intra-state collegiate rivalries, nothing stands out like the looming Kansas-Wichita State third-round game if both teams advance. Wichita State has faced adversity this year, overcoming injuries that depleted its lineup for much of the regular season. Look for this one-seed in last year’s tournament to come into the Kansas game with a vengeance and shock a Jayhawks team short F Cliff Alexander.
Final Four Picks
Arnesen: Kentucky-Arizona-Virginia-Utah
Berson: Kentucky-Arizona-Virginia-Iowa State
Friedman: Kentucky-Arizona-Virginia-Gonzaga
Jacobson: Kentucky-Arizona-Villanova-Iowa State
Lystad: Kentucky-Arizona-Virginia-Duke
Singer: Kentucky-Wisconsin-Michigan State-Duke
National Championship Picks
Arnesen: Kentucky over Virginia
Berson: Arizona over Virginia
Friedman: Arizona over Virginia
Jacobson: Kentucky over Villanova
Lystad: Kentucky over Virginia
Singer: Duke over Kentucky
