With Super Bowl XLIX right around the corner, it’s time to take a look at the Big Game between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks. Can the Seahawks’ secondary stop the Patriots’ high power passing attack? Will Marshawn “Beast Mode” run over the New England defense? Which song will Katy Perry sing to lead off the halftime show? The Black & White has gathered a panel of five football experts to share their predictions.
William Arnesen
Pick: Seattle (27-23)
Deflategate and other distractions notwithstanding, Super Bowl XLIX is shaping up to become one of the best showdowns we’ve seen in years. While every armchair sports analyst has their own gut feelings about the game, I’m gonna take a more numerical approach that has served me well in my own household bets.
From a team-wide perspective, both the Patriots and the Seahawks seem to be in a dead heat. While wonk-site Fivethirtyeight.com ranks Seattle higher in their Elo rankings (indeed, Fivethirtyeight owner Nate Silver has stated that if the Seahawks win, they’ll be ranked as the third greatest team of all time, behind the 2007 and 2004 Patriots), the sabermetric wizards over at Football Outsiders have the Patriots just a wee bit ahead, squeaking in at a 50.5% chance of winning.
But delving into the specifics, Seattle’s advantage begins to emerge: Their star running back, Marshawn Lynch, is ranked number one in rush value per play (R-DVOA, one of the most accurate statistics to gauge overall rushing ability), far outperforming LeGarrette Blount, who doesn’t even crack the top 20.
From a receiving perspective, I’d give New England the edge. But with the unparalleled dominance of Seattle’s defense, spearheaded by superstars like Richard Sherman who can shut down Rob Gronkowski and other catching threats, I honestly can’t see New England winning through the air.
Overall, I’ve got to hand this one to Seattle.
Josh Feder
Pick: Seattle (17-10)
This matchup perfectly embodies the old adage of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object. The Pats offense is led by arguably the greatest quarterback of his time, Tom Brady, who has reliable targets in Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and, of course, Rob Gronkowski. However, they’re going against a Seahawks defense that has few, if any weaknesses to be exploited. Safety Kam Chancellor will be tasked with neutralizing Gronk and I predict that he’ll effectively take him out of the game.
This year’s Patriots defense, although stronger than some of their past Super Bowl teams, is going to have a tough game against the Seahawks’ run. Seattle RB Marshawn Lynch has proven unstoppable time and time again, so look for him to be the difference in this battle of the top seeds. The New England corners should give QB Russell Wilson a tough time in the passing game, but eventually Seattle will wear the Patriot’s secondary down.
I’m calling a close and low scoring game, but the ‘Hawks will edge the Pats out.
Caleb Friedman
Pick: New England (34-28)
In what has been dubbed by some as the first pickem’ Super Bowl in history, I’ve got the Pats.
First, let’s look at the matchup between the Patriot defense and Seahawk offense. With Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner on the outsides, it will tough for Russell Wilson to connect deep passes to Jermaine Kearse and Doug Baldwin. This gives Bill Belichick the flexibility to put eight defenders in the box. Limiting Lynch’s explosive runs, or “splash plays” (as Mike Tomlin says), is all that New England needs to do, and with eight in the box, I think Vince Wilfork and co. can do that. It will be difficult to completely stime Wilson’s legs, which often bail Seattle out of negative plays, but DE Chandler Jones and hybrid linebacker Jamie Collins both have the speed on the outside to keep Wilson in the pocket.
The more anticipated battle will be between UGG model Tom Brady (who also happens to be a fairly successful NFL quarterback) against the aforementioned Legion of Boom. The Seahawks like to play with zone schemes, with their corners playing off coverage and Earl Thomas as a single-high safety. Their other safety, Kam Chancellor, typically roams, often limiting check-down throws and screen passes to short gains. But, the Legion of Boom hasn’t seen anything like Rob Gronkowski. Just his presence alone will open up the slot for Julian Edelman, and more importantly, clear running lanes for LeGarrette Blount. If there’s a way to attack Seattle’s defense, it’s on the ground. The Seahawks have given up 100 yards rushing in each of their four losses this season, which sets up well for the Patriots, who have adopted a smashmouth rushing style since signing Blount midseason.
At the end of the day, I just don’t see Tom Brady giving Seattle short fields by turning the ball over, which is something that the Seahawks have thrived on throughout their successes over the past few years. I don’t think Russell Wilson will outscore Brady. Look for the Pats to grind out a close one in Glendale, and for Bill Belichick to crack a smile–maybe.
Ben Katz
Pick: Seattle (27-24)
The summary of Super Bowl XLIX will be so simple, I’ll put it into a rhyme: We’re going to hear Katy Perry ROOOAAARRR and see the Seattle Seahawks soar.
If running back Marshawn Lynch can unleash Beast Mode, the Seahawks will become just the ninth team in NFL history to win back-to-back Super Bowl championships. With lockdown Patriot cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner covering wideouts Jermaine Kearse and Doug Baldwin, the Seahawks will have to rely heavily on their Pro Bowl running back. Lynch put up 157 yards and one touchdown in the Seahawks’ comeback victory over the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Conference Championship.
I predict Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson will have an average game, but the so-called Legion of Boom, also known as the Seattle secondary, will shut down the beast that is tight end and wannabe dancer Rob Gronkowski. If Seattle free safety Earl Thomas is 100 percent healthy after injuring his shoulder against the Packers, the ‘Hawks should have no problem stopping Pats running back LeGarrette Blount should he get into the open field. And if Lynch eats all his Skittles and has 130+ all-purpose yards and two touchdowns, the Seahawks will fly home World Champions for the second year in a row.
Trevor Lystad
Pick: New England (27-20)
Bill Belichick is the greatest coach of this generation. Tom Brady is arguably the greatest quarterback, too. The media may love Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson, but their track record of success doesn’t match up with the Patriots’ experienced duo–at least yet, anyway.
In my humble opinion, the defending champions had a grossly overrated season. Much is made of their 9-1 end to the season, but who did they play? Their last 10 regular season games included but two playoff teams: the 7-8-1 Carolina Panthers and the quarterback-less Arizona Cardinals. Before facing Aaron Rodgers two weeks ago, the last quarterback they played who was anywhere close to Brady’s caliber is Tony Romo, which was in week 6. And guess what? They lost.
Of course, a Seahawks fan has a quick response: they played Rodgers in the NFC championship, and they beat him. But Rodgers was hurt, and it took an end-of-the-game miracle that Belichick would never let happen. Moreover, I don’t trust Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson to bounce back from his four-interception performance in the NFC Championship. The Seahawks do boast star running back Marshawn Lynch, and I predict he’ll have a strong game, but it won’t be enough to counter the Patriots attack.
Now let’s take a look at the Pats. After a rough start, Brady had an undeniably great season. With weapons like Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and rejuvenated running back LeGarrette Blount, Brady should be able to overcome the Seahawks’ star-studded secondary. Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman will likely shut down whomever he guards, but Belichick is smart enough to put his stars like Edelman and Gronkowski on the other side of the field.
These are two exceptional and relatively evenly matched teams, but Brady and Belichick’s intelligence and experience will give them the Super Bowl victory. Hopefully the football on the Lombardi Trophy isn’t too deflated.
Prop Bets
Length of Idina Menzel’s national anthem
+/-: 2 minutes, 1 second
Arnesen: Under
Feder: Over
Friedman: Under
Katz: Under
Lystad: Under
Number of times “deflated balls” is referenced during the game
+/-: 2 1/2
Arnesen: Over
Feder: Over
Friedman: Over
Katz: Over
Lystad: Over
Number of times Gisele Bundchen is shown on TV
+/-: 1 1/2
Arnesen: Over
Feder: Over
Friedman: Over
Katz: Over
Lystad: Over
Song Katy Perry will perform first
Arnesen: Firework
Feder: Dark Horse
Friedman: California Gurls
Katz: Firework
Lystad: Dark Horse
Color of Gatorade dumped on winning coach’s head
Arnesen: Orange
Feder: Orange
Friedman: Yellow
Katz: Yellow
Lystad: Orange
Will Menzel omit a word from the anthem?
Arnesen: No
Feder: No
Friedman: No
Katz: No
Lystad: No
Color of Coach Belichick’s hoodie
+/-: Gray -200, Blue +175, Red +700
Arnesen: Blue
Feder: Gray
Friedman: Blue
Katz: Gray
Lystad: Gray
Side of coin
Arnesen: Heads
Feder: Tails
Friedman: Tails
Katz: Heads
Lystad: Heads
