The start of the 2024-25 National Hockey League (NHL) season marks a crucial year for the Washington Capitals. Alexander Ovechkin’s chase for the all-time goal-scoring record will continue while the Caps look to build on a successful first season under new Head Coach Spencer Carbery. Key off-season additions displayed the Caps’ desire to chase another Stanley Cup and maximize the years left in Ovechkin’s career while rebuilding for the future.
The Off-Season
The Caps had a busy offseason, adding seven players to their roster. They started by trading backup goalie Darcy Kuemper to the Los Angeles Kings for forward Pierre Luc Dubois. Dubois will now play for his fourth NHL team, seeking a fresh start in Washington, and will likely assume an immediate large role in the offense. The Caps then traded a second-round pick to the Calgary Flames for veteran winger Andrew Mangiapane. Shortly after, they traded two third-round picks for longtime goalie Logan Thompson. The offseason action did not stop there as the Caps completed their final trade, receiving defenseman Jakob Chychrun and giving up longtime defenseman Nick Jensen in the trade to the Ottawa Senators.
Along with key trades, General Manager Brian MacLellan made some significant signings in free agency to help further boost the supporting cast around Ovechkin. The most high-profile addition was signing defenseman Matt Roy to a six-year contract. The former Los Angeles Kings star played in all but one game last year and had a terrific goal differential of +21. They also added to their forward depth by signing Brandon Duhaime and Taylor Raddysh to short-term contracts. Both players will likely play on the fourth line and add a physical element to an already feisty team.
Strengths
Goaltender Depth – With the addition of Logan Thompson, the Caps add to their already strong goaltender room featuring last year’s starter Charlie Lindgren. Lindgren had a tremendous end to the season and played a central role in the Caps’ late push to make the playoffs. Thompson had a strong year with the Las Vegas Golden Knights, splitting time as the starter and appearing in four playoff games. Lindgren will be the assumed starter to open the year, but both goalies will see plenty of time throughout the season and are looking to play a big role in the team’s success.
Experience – Besides having 39-year-old veteran Alex Ovechkin, defenseman John Carlson is entering his 16th year as the backbone of the Caps’ defense. Both players will serve as mentors to the younger players on the roster, on both sides of the ice, and are key parts of this team. The Caps placed TJ Oshie on the Long Term Injured Reserve during the offseason but will also provide a veteran presence in the locker room.
Weaknesses
Goal Scoring Threats – Last season the Caps struggled to net the puck as they ranked 26th in the league at 2.63 goals per game. This was largely due to the lack of strong goal scorers besides Ovechkin, who himself had a down year. If they want to take the next step in competing for a division title, the additions of Dubois and the return of key contributors including forward Dylan Strome will play a huge part in consistently putting the puck in the back of the net this season.
Goal Differential – After posting the sixth-worst goal differential in the league last season at -37, the Caps can’t fall into a similar trap this season and expect sustained success. Far too often, they were trailing by two or three goals early in games and struggled to get out of it, suffering many big losses due to inexplicable defensive mistakes and a stagnant offense. Fortunately, they were tremendous in one-goal games, helping them stay in the playoff hunt. If they struggle with their goal differential again this season, it will continue to make them rely on winning one-goal games. They will have to control the puck in the offensive zone more and have a higher shot volume on a nightly basis in order to put more pressure on opposing defenses.
Expectations
After starting last year with just a 26% chance of making the playoffs, Head Coach Spencer Carbury led his team to a surprising playoff berth. The red-hot New York Rangers eventually swept them, but the season provided a glimpse into the future of the team under Carbury.
One of the biggest anticipations for the Caps this year is Oveckin’s chase for the all-time goal-scoring record. Currently, he sits at 853 goals, 41 behind Wayne Gretsky’s record of 894. After a slow start to the 2023-24 season with just eight goals in his first 43 games, he scored 23 goals in his last 36 games. With his career winding down, it isn’t likely that Ovechkin will break the record this year, but it will certainly be close. It looks like Ovechkin will finish the season somewhere in the 880s, leaving him a small number of goals away from the record heading into next season.
As for the team as a whole, while the roster has work to do, Caps fans still have a lot to look forward to in the near future. The Caps have around a 35% chance of making the playoffs according to oddsmakers, the third worst in the Eastern Conference while only having a six percent chance to win their division. Fans managing expectations and trusting the process of rebuilding will be key for a team that hasn’t made it out of the first round since winning the Stanley Cup in 2018.
The Caps’ potential is there, as they have the young talent and veteran players that have been in the league for a while. But the goal-scoring is still lacking and they aren’t quite good enough yet on the back line to compete for a Stanley Cup. That said, the Caps ceiling is probably competing for a division title while their floor is missing the playoffs and ending up with a top-10 draft pick going into next season. While it may take many years to get back to the championship-caliber team the Caps were in 2018, if they can hone in on the offensive side and get stellar goaltending, the Capitals should be competitive for a playoff spot this season.
